Early battery performance prediction for mixed use charging profiles using hierarchal machine learning

Eric J Dufek, M. ross Kunz, Zonggen Yi, Kevin L Gering, Matthew G. Shirk, Kandler Smith, Bor-Rong Chenk Qiang Wang, Paul Gasper, Randy L. Bewley, and Tanvir R. Tanim

May 2021 - A key step limiting how fast batteries can be deployed is the time necessary to provide evaluation and validation of performance. Using data analysis approaches, such as machine learning, the validation process can be accelerated. However, questions on the validity of projecting models trained on limited data or simple cycling profiles, such as constant current cycling, to real‐world scenarios with complex loads remains. Here, we present the ability to predict performance with less than 1.2% mean absolute percent error when trained on cells aged using complex electric vehicle discharge profiles, and either AC Level 2 charge or DC Fast charge profiles, using only the first 45 cycles, namely 5% of the total testing time. While error is low across the projections, this study also highlights that battery lifetime analysis using only cycling data may not extrapolate safely to certain real‐world conditions due to the impact of calendar degradation.

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